performance forecasting
Enhancing Project Performance Forecasting using Machine Learning Techniques
Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.28)
- North America > United States > Texas > Bexar County > San Antonio (0.04)
- North America > United States > Michigan > Washtenaw County > Ann Arbor (0.04)
- North America > United States > Florida > Orange County > Orlando (0.04)
Deep Learning and Transfer Learning Architectures for English Premier League Player Performance Forecasting
Frees, Daniel, Ravella, Pranav, Zhang, Charlie
This paper presents a groundbreaking model for forecasting English Premier League (EPL) player performance using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We evaluate Ridge regression, LightGBM and CNNs on the task of predicting upcoming player FPL score based on historical FPL data over the previous weeks. Our baseline models, Ridge regression and LightGBM, achieve solid performance and emphasize the importance of recent FPL points, influence, creativity, threat, and playtime in predicting EPL player performances. Our optimal CNN architecture achieves better performance with fewer input features and even outperforms the best previous EPL player performance forecasting models in the literature. The optimal CNN architecture also achieves very strong Spearman correlation with player rankings, indicating its strong implications for supporting the development of FPL artificial intelligence (AI) Agents and providing analysis for FPL managers. We additionally perform transfer learning experiments on soccer news data collected from The Guardian, for the same task of predicting upcoming player score, but do not identify a strong predictive signal in natural language news texts, achieving worse performance compared to both the CNN and baseline models. Overall, our CNN-based approach marks a significant advancement in EPL player performance forecasting and lays the foundation for transfer learning to other EPL prediction tasks such as win-loss odds for sports betting and the development of cutting-edge FPL AI Agents.
- North America > United States > California > Santa Clara County > Palo Alto (0.04)
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.04)
ALANNO: An Active Learning Annotation System for Mortals
Jukić, Josip, Jelenić, Fran, Bićanić, Miroslav, Šnajder, Jan
Supervised machine learning has become the cornerstone of today's data-driven society, increasing the need for labeled data. However, the process of acquiring labels is often expensive and tedious. One possible remedy is to use active learning (AL) -- a special family of machine learning algorithms designed to reduce labeling costs. Although AL has been successful in practice, a number of practical challenges hinder its effectiveness and are often overlooked in existing AL annotation tools. To address these challenges, we developed ALANNO, an open-source annotation system for NLP tasks equipped with features to make AL effective in real-world annotation projects. ALANNO facilitates annotation management in a multi-annotator setup and supports a variety of AL methods and underlying models, which are easily configurable and extensible.
- North America > United States > New Mexico > Santa Fe County > Santa Fe (0.04)
- North America > United States > Hawaii > Honolulu County > Honolulu (0.04)
- North America > United States > Georgia > Fulton County > Atlanta (0.04)
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